Confused by the numbers you see in Medford market reports? You are not alone. If you are buying or selling in the City of Medford in Jackson County, a few core terms can help you read the market with confidence. In this guide, you will learn what each metric means, how to calculate it, and how to use it to make a smart decision. Let’s dive in.
Medford market basics
Define your area
When you look at stats, make sure the geography is clear and consistent. This guide uses the City of Medford in Jackson County, Oregon. Some reports use specific zip codes or the MLS “Medford” area. Pick one definition and stick with it so your numbers match.
Choose a timeframe
Numbers change with seasons. A 30‑day snapshot shows current momentum. A 12‑month trailing view smooths out one‑off months. Both are useful. If you are deciding soon, focus on the most recent 30 days and compare to the same time last year when possible.
Inventory and new listings
What inventory means
Inventory is the number of homes currently for sale. It is a simple count of active listings in your defined area. New listings are homes that came to market during a period, which helps you see seasonality and turnover.
How to find inventory
Ask your agent for a current MLS snapshot for Medford. You can also review the Rogue Valley Association of REALTORS monthly stats. Consumer sites can cross‑check quick counts, but methods differ, so confirm what they include.
Quick example
If Medford shows 300 active listings today, that is your current inventory. Pair it with recent closed sales to learn months of supply and absorption rate.
Months of supply
Simple definition
Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell all current listings at the recent sales pace. It is one of the clearest signals of market balance.
How to calculate it
Formula: Active listings ÷ Average monthly closed sales.
- For a 30‑day snapshot, use last 30 days of closed sales as the monthly figure.
- For a 12‑month view, use last 12 months of closed sales ÷ 12.
Common interpretation:
- Under 3 months is a seller’s market.
- Three to six months is balanced.
- Over 6 months is a buyer’s market.
How buyers use it
If months of supply is low in your price band, expect faster timelines and more competition. Have pre‑approval ready, consider flexible terms, and move promptly on a good fit.
How sellers use it
If supply is tight, you can price more confidently, but still anchor to recent comparable sales and condition. If supply is high, plan for longer market time and possible concessions.
Hypothetical example
Hypothetical Medford example: 300 active listings and 75 closed sales in the last 30 days. Months of supply = 300 ÷ 75 = 4.0 months, which points to a balanced market.
Absorption rate
Definition and formula
Absorption rate is the share of current inventory that sells in a period. Formula: Closed sales in period ÷ Active listings.
Connect to months of supply
Absorption and months of supply are two sides of the same coin. If absorption is 25 percent per month, months of supply is 1 ÷ 0.25 = 4 months.
Example
Using the hypothetical above: 75 closed ÷ 300 active = 0.25. That means about 25 percent of Medford’s active inventory sold in a month.
Days on Market (DOM)
What DOM shows
DOM measures how long it takes a listing to go under contract. Reports often show the median DOM. Lower DOM suggests strong demand. Higher DOM suggests buyers have more time or that specific segments are slower.
DOM details to confirm
Ask whether your report uses Cumulative DOM, which includes relists, or DOM only for the current market entry. The definition can change your interpretation.
How to use DOM
For buyers, longer DOM can mean more room to negotiate and time for inspections. For sellers, short DOM can support a stronger list price, but watch for price reductions, which can signal overpricing.
List‑to‑sale ratio
What the ratio means
The list‑to‑sale ratio shows how close the sale price is to the asking price, expressed as a percentage. Ratios near or above 100 percent point to competitive bidding. Ratios under 98 percent often mean sellers accept below list on average.
Original vs final list
Some reports use the original list price. Others use the final list price after reductions. Confirm which is used so you read the number correctly.
Example
If a home listed at 350,000 sells for 342,500, the ratio is 342,500 ÷ 350,000 = 97.9 percent.
Where to get Medford data
Primary local sources
- Rogue Valley Association of REALTORS and the local MLS for Medford market snapshots, including active listings, closed sales, DOM, and list‑to‑sale ratios.
- Jackson County Assessor and Recorder for parcel and deed records.
- City of Medford Planning and Building for permits and new construction data.
- Oregon REALTORS for statewide trends and methodology.
Consumer cross‑checks
Consumer portals can provide quick snapshots for Medford. Their counts can differ based on update timing and whether they include pending or contingent listings. Treat them as a secondary reference.
Caveats to watch
- Relists can reset DOM unless you use Cumulative DOM.
- Off‑market or private sales may not appear in MLS.
- Inclusion of new construction, bank‑owned properties, and FSBOs can vary.
- Small sample sizes in narrow price bands can create big percentage swings.
Step‑by‑step: do the math
Months of supply in three steps
- Get counts: active listings today, closed sales in the last 30 days.
- Compute months of supply: Active ÷ Closed in last 30 days.
- Interpret using thresholds: under 3 months seller’s market, 3 to 6 balanced, over 6 buyer’s market.
Absorption rate in two steps
- Divide closed sales in the period by current active listings.
- Convert to a percent so it is easy to compare month to month.
DOM and list‑to‑sale ratio
- Confirm whether DOM is median and whether it is cumulative.
- Check if list‑to‑sale is based on original or final list price.
Local nuance to keep in mind
- Segments move differently. Entry‑level homes often sell faster while higher‑end homes can take longer.
- Seasonality matters in the Rogue Valley. Spring and summer usually bring more new listings and active buyers. Winter often slows both.
- New construction, local employment, and natural hazards like wildfire seasons can influence both supply and demand.
What this means for you
Buyers: quick checklist
- Ask for months of supply and median DOM in your price band and neighborhood.
- If supply is low, have pre‑approval ready and use a clean, timely offer.
- If supply is high, compare more options, negotiate contingencies, and watch for price reductions.
- Review list‑to‑sale ratios to gauge how close to asking you may need to be.
Sellers: quick checklist
- Check months of supply and list‑to‑sale ratio for your home type and price tier, not just citywide averages.
- If your segment is tight on supply, you can price confidently while staying aligned to recent comps.
- If your segment is slower, plan for longer DOM and consider strategic price or concession plans.
- Watch nearby new construction and permits, which can add competing supply.
Quick Medford glossary
- Inventory (active listings): The number of homes currently for sale.
- Months of supply: How many months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace. Lower means tighter supply.
- Absorption rate: The percent of active inventory that sells in a given month.
- Days on Market (DOM): How long listings take to go under contract.
- List‑to‑sale ratio: Sale price divided by list price, shown as a percentage.
- Pending: A home under contract but not yet closed.
- Price reduction: A decrease in asking price, which can signal overpricing or softer demand.
Wrap up and next steps
You do not need to be a data analyst to read Medford market reports. With a clear area, a defined timeframe, and a few simple formulas, you can see whether conditions favor buyers or sellers in your price range. If you want current numbers by neighborhood and price tier, or you are weighing a move this season, reach out for a local snapshot tailored to your goals.
Have questions or want a quick read on your segment? Let’s talk with a local expert who lives and works here. Connect with Matt Misener for a clear plan and next steps.
FAQs
What shows a seller’s market in Medford?
- Less than 3 months of supply is a common threshold for a seller’s market in Medford.
How do I calculate Medford months of supply?
- Divide active listings by average monthly closed sales, using the last 30 days for a snapshot or last 12 months divided by 12 for a smoother trend.
Why can Medford DOM be low while prices stall?
- Low DOM may be concentrated in lower price bands while higher tiers move slower, and affordability limits can also hold prices flat.
Is list‑to‑sale ratio enough to set price?
- No, use it with median price, price per square foot, DOM, and common concessions to get a full picture.
Should I price aggressively when supply is tight?
- Competitive pricing often leads to faster contracts and strong net proceeds when inventory is low, but align to local comps, condition, and strategy.
